Daily Market Commentary

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Get a complete view of the world as seen through the eyes of our investment professionals each and every business day shortly after the opening bell.

The information contained herein is intended for advisors for general information only and is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy. All opinions contained in the commentary and expressed by the portfolio manager are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith without legal responsibility. All market data is sourced from Bloomberg.​​​​​

  • Canadian retail sales rose 0.4% in July
    Friday, September 22, 2017 - 09:38 EDT

    Canadian retail sales rose 0.4% in July. In terms of volume, sales fell 0.2%, however excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.2%. Consumer spending has been persistently solid in the past two years. There appears to be no obvious signs of downside risks…

  • As expected the Fed funds rate remains unchanged at 1%
    Thursday, September 21, 2017 - 09:39 EDT

    As expected, the Fed funds rate remains unchanged at 1% and announced that they will gradually reduce their $4.5 trillion balance sheet starting in October. FOMC members’ dot plot projections implied one more 25bps hike in 2017, three hikes in 2018…

  • While awaiting today's Fed rate decision global markets are generally calm
    Wednesday, September 20, 2017 - 09:09 EDT

    While awaiting today’s Fed rate decision and press conference, global financial markets are generally calm. With a widespread expectation that the Fed will start balance sheet unwinding in October, government bond yields edged higher globally. …

  • BOC deputy governor, Tim Lane, spoke publicly on global trade yesterday
    Tuesday, September 19, 2017 - 08:41 EDT

    BOC deputy governor Tim Lane spoke publicly on global trade, yesterday. He reiterated that the central bank is closely monitoring how the economy responds to rising borrowing costs and a stronger Canadian dollar. In the speech, he also mentioned how…

  • Investors' attention is turning to the FOMC announcement this Wednesday
    Monday, September 18, 2017 - 09:24 EDT

    Investors’ attention is turning to the FOMC announcement this Wednesday. While the Feb is broadly expected to maintain the benchmark rate unchanged at the current level of 1%-1.25%, the majority of the attention will be on whether there will be det…

  • U.S. retail sales for the month of August fell
    Friday, September 15, 2017 - 10:22 EDT

    North Korea launched another missile over Japan after the UN Security Council imposed the strongest sanctions on North Korea on Monday. Markets were a touch softer and viewed the current situation as a continuance of the provocation, instead of furth…

  • U.S. headline inflation increased by 0.4%
    Thursday, September 14, 2017 - 09:38 EDT

    U.S headline inflation increased by 0.4% to 1.9% in August, largely due to 2.8% energy prices increase causing by Hurricane Harvey. Core inflation rose by 0.2% to 1.7% in August, supported by strong service prices. Fed officials are closely monitorin…

  • Yesterday was a very active day in the domestic bond market
    Wednesday, September 13, 2017 - 09:36 EDT

    U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is planning to deliver a speech on her latest Brexit negotiation strategy on September 21st . The European Union and U.K. have agreed to postpone the next round of Brexit negotiation to a date after the speech, which i…

  • The UN Security Council approved new sanctions against North Korea
    Tuesday, September 12, 2017 - 09:06 EDT

    The United Nations Security Council approved new sanctions against North Korea after its most powerful missile and nuclear tests. The sanctions targeted to cut oil imports to 2 million barrels a year, ban textile exports and enhance shipments inspect…

  • The U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have move higher
    Monday, September 11, 2017 - 09:07 EDT

    Hurricane Irma hit Florida with less force than expected, and with no other geopolitical news coming out over the weekend, the U.S dollar and U.S Treasury yields moved higher. Safe havens including gold, the yen and Swiss franc fell. In the meantime,…

  • Canada added 22,200 jobs in August
    Friday, September 8, 2017 - 09:26 EDT

    Canada added 22,200 jobs in August, higher than market expectations of a 15,000 gain. Details were weaker than the headline number. Full-time jobs decreased by 88,100, fully offset the 32,700 gain of self-employed positions. The gain in August was ma…

  • There was a flurry of new issuance in the Canadian credit market yesterday
    Wednesday, September 6, 2017 - 08:38 EDT

    Markets are softer this morning, weighting up the risks of; a potential intercontinental ballistic missile launch by North Korea; hurricane Irma moving closer to Florida; and the American debt ceiling approaching.  The risk- off tone was support…

  • Gasoline prices are slightly lower this morning
    Tuesday, September 5, 2017 - 10:51 EDT

    Gasoline prices are slightly lower this morning after increasing by as much as 15% over the past week.  However, Hurricane Irma is currently tracking along the Atlantic coast  and could potentially threaten the gulf coast after being upgrad…

  • U.S. nonfarm payrolls undershot expectations with 156,000 jobs added in August
    Friday, September 1, 2017 - 10:24 EDT

    U.S. nonfarm payrolls undershot expectations with 156,000 jobs added in August, versus consensus of 180,000.  There was also a negative 41,000 revision for the prior two months.  The participation rate of 62.9% was in line with the prior mo…

  • China's manufacturing PMI increased to 51.7 in July
    Thursday, August 31, 2017 - 09:53 EDT

    China’s manufacturing PMI increased to 51.7 in July, higher than the forecast of 51.3.  China’s economy continues to be strong this year as a pickup in exports continues.  The U.S. second estimate for Q2 GDP was revised up to 3%, higher…

  • U.S. ADP employment for August came in at 237k
    Wednesday, August 30, 2017 - 10:11 EDT

    U.S. President, Donald Trump, responded that “all options are on the table” after North Korea fired a missile over Japan on Tuesday.  Markets interpreted it as the situation won’t escalate. Asian stock markets closed higher, followed by Eu…

  • North Korea fired a missile over Japan setting a risk-off tone across markets
    Tuesday, August 29, 2017 - 09:25 EDT

    North Korea fired a missile over Japan setting a risk-off tone across markets. Stocks were weak across Europe and Asia. U.S stock futures also tumbled as safe havens including gold, the Swiss franc and Japanese Yen rallied.  Japan stated that th…

  • Tropical Storm Harvey, and the devasting floods, continue in Texas
    Monday, August 28, 2017 - 09:36 EDT

    Tropical Storm Harvey, and the devastating floods, continues in Texas. Houston, the 4st largest city in America and the biggest in Texas, which is the center of the U.S. energy industry.  Approximately 25% of natural gas production in the Gulf o…

  • U.S. durable goods for July came in at -6.8%
    Friday, August 25, 2017 - 09:03 EDT

    U.S. durable goods for July came in at -6.8% below expectations of -6.0%.  The large drop over the past month was a result on unusually higher aircraft orders in the previous month following the Paris Air show.  However, core capital goods…

  • CIBC was the second of the Canadian banks to report
    Thursday, August 24, 2017 - 08:51 EDT

    Fitch put out a note yesterday indicating that any failure by the U.S. to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner would result in potentially negative implications.  This follows President Trump’s comments that he would be willing to shut do…

  • Yesterday saw a flurry of new issue activity
    Wednesday, August 23, 2017 - 08:23 EDT

    President Trump continues to drive headlines this week after stating that the NAFTA agreement will likely be terminated while he would also be willing to shut down the government over border wall funding.  In his speech, Trump indicated frustrat…

  • Canadian retail sales for June came in just below expectations
    Tuesday, August 22, 2017 - 08:56 EDT

    Canadian retail sales for June came in just below expectations of 0.2% at +0.1%m/m.  Although still a positive increased for the month of June, May’s strong retail sales number was revised 0.1% lower to 0.5%.  Consumption in Canada contin…

  • The first round of the NAFTA negotiations ended last week
    Monday, August 21, 2017 - 08:55 EDT

    The first round of the NAFTA negotiations between the U.S., Canada and Mexico ended last week with all three countries committed to wrapping up the negotiations quickly.  The U.S. has mid-term elections while Mexico has a national election next…

  • Candian headline inflation for July came in at 1.2%
    Friday, August 18, 2017 - 09:01 EDT

    Canadian headline inflation for July came in at expectations at 1.2%.  CPI ticked higher by 0.2% from the previous month as a result of higher gasoline prices in addition to rising hotel accommodations and restaurant prices.  Electricity de…

  • The FOMC minutes from the July meeting were released yesterday
    Thursday, August 17, 2017 - 08:58 EDT

    The FOMC minutes from the July meeting were released yesterday, where the Fed decided to leave rates unchanged.  For the most part, new information was largely absent as Fed officials debated the likelihood that inflation will increase back to t…

  • Second quarter GDP out of Europe continues to be positive
    Wednesday, August 16, 2017 - 09:25 EDT

    Today officially marks the first day of NAFTA negotiations between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico as the U.S. will attempt to reduce the trade deficit against the other two countries.  Second quarter GDP out of Europe continues to be positive, incr…

  • Yesterday, Foreign Affairs minister Chrystia Freeland spoke about Canada’s core objectives in the upcoming NAFTA negotiations...
    Tuesday, August 15, 2017 - 09:12 EDT

    Yesterday, Foreign Affairs minister Chrystia Freeland spoke about Canada’s core objectives in the upcoming NAFTA negotiations that begin tomorrow.  She indicated that Canada won’t accept just any deal, with hopes that the three countries can…

  • Tensions between the U.S. and North Korea continued to be in the headlines...
    Monday, August 14, 2017 - 09:08 EDT

    Tensions between the U.S. and North Korea continued to be in the headlines on Friday, keeping some volatility in the markets.  The VIX index was just under 10 to start last week, and currently stands at 13 after rising to a high of 16 at the mid…

  • U.S. inflation edged up marginally in July
    Friday, August 11, 2017 - 09:23 EDT

    U.S. inflation edged up marginally in July by 0.1% to 1.7% y/y, although below expectations of 1.8%.  CPI ex food and energy y/y continues to remain stable, similarly to last month at 1.7%.  Inflation continues to remain below the Federal R…

  • The U.S. producer price index for July fell
    Thursday, August 10, 2017 - 08:57 EDT

    The U.S. producer price index for July fell by 0.1% m/m against expectations of a +0.1% increase.  The unexpected drop in wholesale prices was the first decline in almost a year, potentially indication that inflation will remain benign.  Ex…

  • Canadian housing starts for July increased
    Wednesday, August 9, 2017 - 09:01 EDT

    Economic data releases are again quieter in North America this morning.  However, Canadian housing starts for July increased from the prior month up 10k to 222.3k and higher than expectations of 205k.  Most of the new housing starts were in…

  • WTI crude prices are holding above $49/barrel this morning
    Tuesday, August 8, 2017 - 09:02 EDT

    The economic calendar in North America is light to start the week following the Civic long holiday weekend in Canada.  In Germany, the trade surplus in June continued to widen to a ten month high that currently stands at $22.3 billion.  The…

  • Canadian employment continues to show positive growth
    Friday, August 4, 2017 - 09:09 EDT

    Canadian employment continues to show positive growth this month, adding 10.9k jobs in July versus expectations of +12.5k.  The details were positive with full time employment increasing by 35.1k and part-time jobs decreasing by 24.3k.  The…

  • The Bank of England released its monetary policy statement
    Thursday, August 3, 2017 - 09:03 EDT

    The Bank of England released its monetary policy statement this morning leaving its key interest rate unchanged.  The central bank also maintained bond purchases steady at £435 billion in government bonds and £10 billion in corporate bonds.&nb…

  • U.S. ADP employment for July increased by 178k
    Wednesday, August 2, 2017 - 09:27 EDT

    The economic calendar is relatively light this morning with no releases out of Canada.  In the U.S., ADP employment for July increased by 178k, just below expectations of 190k.  Although ADP is not always the best gauge for non-farm payroll…

  • U.S. personal incomes came in flat for June
    Tuesday, August 1, 2017 - 09:09 EDT

    U.S. personal incomes came in flat for June just below expectations of a +0.4% increase.  The prior month’s personal income increase was also revised down by 0.1% to 0.3%.  Personal spending also stalled only increasing at 0.1% for the mo…

  • Gov. of Canada 10-year yields continue to move higher
    Monday, July 31, 2017 - 08:59 EDT

    Government of Canada 10-year yields continued to move higher on Friday following very strong GDP growth data for the month of May.  Ten yield Canada yields have now moved above the 2% mark and currently sit at the highest levels in approximately…

  • Canadian GDP came in at 4.6% y/y in May
    Friday, July 28, 2017 - 09:13 EDT

    Canadian GDP came in at 4.6% y/y in May, which was higher than expectations of 4.1%.  The data beat forecasts as a result of a rebound in crude oil production over the month, making this GDP number the fastest 12 month pace since 2000.  Oil…

  • U.S. durable goods for June came in at 6.5%, much higher than expectations
    Thursday, July 27, 2017 - 09:31 EDT

    The FOMC announcement yesterday was relatively uneventful as the Fed Funds Rate was left unchanged, which was widely expected.  For the most part, the statement was left mostly intact from the June statement.  The committee once again ackno…

  • The FOMC releases its monetary policy statement this afternoon
    Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 09:01 EDT

    The FOMC releases its monetary policy statement this afternoon, although the expectation is that the Fed will leave rates unchanged.  However, investors will be interested if there will be any details on whether the central bank will begin its t…

  • The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen
    Tuesday, July 25, 2017 - 08:31 EDT

    The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen amid expectations that the Bank of Canada will further tighten monetary policy, while the Canadian economy shows signs of additional strength.  The CAD currency moved above $0.80 against the U.S. dolla…

  • Investors will be watching for the FOMC policy announcement...
    Monday, July 24, 2017 - 09:28 EDT

    Investors will be watching for the FOMC policy announcement this coming Wednesday.  Although the probability that the Fed will hike rates this meeting is next to nil, what is important will be any additional details on the steps towards balance…

  • Canadian headline inflation continues to run softer in Canada...
    Friday, July 21, 2017 - 10:15 EDT

    Canadian headline inflation continues to run softer in Canada, posting an increase of 1% year-over-year for June, just below expectations of +1.1%.  Inflation tracked lower from the previous reading of 1.3%, with June’s number the slowest sinc…

  • The European Central Bank left rates unchanged this morning...
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 - 11:04 EDT

    The European Central Bank left rates unchanged this morning, and continues to maintain its quantitative easing program at 60 billion euros every month.  The statement maintained some dovish commentary, indicating that quantitative easing can be…

  • Morgan Stanley is the last of the big five banks in the U.S. to report...
    Wednesday, July 19, 2017 - 09:31 EDT

    The Bank of Japan begins its monetary policy meeting and outlook report today and tomorrow.  Inflation in Japan still remains low, rising 0.4% year-over-year for the last reported data in May.  Previously, Governor Kuroda indicated that it…

  • The Canadian dollar continues to rally...
    Tuesday, July 18, 2017 - 09:35 EDT

    The Canadian dollar continues to rally against the U.S. dollar following last week’s increase in the overnight rate by the Bank of Canada, along with reports this morning that two more Republican senators announced that they will vote against Presi…

  • China GDP was released overnight, coming in at 6.9%...
    Monday, July 17, 2017 - 10:15 EDT

    China GDP was released overnight, coming in at 6.9% for the second quarter, above expectations of 6.8%.  Growth was driven by industrial production, business investment, and retail sales.  The Chinese consumer continued to spend, as sales r…

  • U.S. inflation came in slightly below expectations
    Friday, July 14, 2017 - 09:29 EDT

    U.S. inflation came in slightly below expectations at 1.6% y/y versus consensus of 1.7%, while core inflation continues to track below the Fed’s target at 1.7%.  Drops in airfares, vehicles sales and wireless phone services contributed to the…

  • The BoC increased the Overnight Rate by 25 basis points
    Thursday, July 13, 2017 - 08:58 EDT

    The Bank of Canada increased the Overnight Rate by 25 basis points yesterday to 0.75%.  The Bank acknowledged the recent softness in inflation but judges this to be temporary.  The statement also noted that the Canadian economy has been rob…

  • The BoC will release its policy statement this morning
    Wednesday, July 12, 2017 - 09:14 EDT

    The Bank of Canada will release its policy statement this morning, with a 90% probability of a 25bps rate hike.  With the market already pricing in that the Bank will raise rates this meeting, the tone of today’s statement will be important.&n…

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