Daily Market Commentary

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Get a complete view of the world as seen through the eyes of our investment professionals each and every business day shortly after the opening bell.

The information contained herein is intended for advisors for general information only and is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy. All opinions contained in the commentary and expressed by the portfolio manager are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith without legal responsibility. All market data is sourced from Bloomberg.​​​​​

  • U.S. non-farm payrolls for January saw an increase of 200k
    Friday, February 2, 2018 - 08:59 EST

    U.S. non-farm payrolls for January saw an increase of 200k, which was above expectations of +180k.  The unemployment rate remained unchanged at this cycle’s low of 4.1%.  The increase in average hourly earnings added to the positive momen…

  • The Federal Reserve released its monetary policy decision yesterday
    Thursday, February 1, 2018 - 09:09 EST

    The Federal Reserve released its monetary policy decision yesterday afternoon and decided to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged.  The FOMC statement reiterated that the U.S. economy has improved significantly, as strong employment has led to hig…

  • The FOMC will hold its rate decision later this afternoon
    Wednesday, January 31, 2018 - 08:34 EST

    The FOMC will hold its rate decision later this afternoon.  This meeting will be the final one for Yellen, who will pass the baton to Jerome Powell.  As a result, the Fed is not expected to make any drastic changes to the Fed Funds Rate as…

  • NAFTA representatives commented that good progress had been made...
    Tuesday, January 30, 2018 - 09:07 EST

    After wrapping up the sixth round of NAFTA negotiations yesterday, representatives from the three countries commented that good progress had been made although at a very slow pace.  Canadian Foreign Minister Freeland did remark that there were s…

  • U.S. core PCE held flat over the year at 1.5%
    Monday, January 29, 2018 - 08:59 EST

    The U.S. PCE deflator for December came in at expectations of 1.7%, which was down 0.1% from the previous month.  However, the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, core PCE, held flat year over year at 1.5%.  Core PCE continues to track b…

  • Canadian CPI for December saw a decline of 0.4%
    Friday, January 26, 2018 - 08:51 EST

    Canadian CPI for December saw a decline of 0.4% with year over year headline inflation at 1.9%.  This was down slightly from the previous month’s figure of 2.1%.  December is typically a weaker month for inflation data, as the Bank of Can…

  • BoC Governor Poloz spoke this morning
    Thursday, January 25, 2018 - 09:13 EST

    Bank of Canada Governor Poloz spoke this morning on CNBC and commented on the recent decision to increase the overnight rate by 25bps.  At this current juncture, the BOC is totally data dependent, so the recent string of strong economic data rei…

  • The sixth round of NAFTA negotiations continue today
    Wednesday, January 24, 2018 - 08:56 EST

    The sixth round of NAFTA negotiations continue today, although there have been few headlines emerging from the talks.  Despite this, many of the world leaders have gathered in Davos this week with 11 members announcing an agreement to save the T…

  • Canada is estimated to have the second strongest growth among G7 peers
    Tuesday, January 23, 2018 - 08:46 EST

    Yesterday, the IMF upgraded global growth expectations to 3.9% in 2018 and 2019 as a result of the U.S. tax cuts and Euro area growth.  Canada is estimated to have the second strongest growth among G7 peers at 2.3% this year. The U.S. Government…

  • Markets have not reacted to the government shutdown
    Monday, January 22, 2018 - 08:22 EST

    The U.S. government was not able to come to a deal on Friday and as a result federal offices enter their third day of a shutdown.  Senate democrats wished to address legislation including immigration and did not agree to a vote on Friday that wo…

  • The U.S. government is again at risk of a shutdown
    Friday, January 19, 2018 - 09:08 EST

    The U.S. government is again at risk of a shutdown at midnight today, although the U.S. Congress was able to pass a bill yesterday night that would extend short-term funding until February 12.  However, the bill now moves to the Senate where Dem…

  • The BOC raised rates by 25bps yesterday
    Thursday, January 18, 2018 - 09:16 EST

    The Bank of Canada raised rates by 25bps yesterday pushing the Overnight Rate up to 1.25%.  Within the statement, the BOC highlighted the cloudy economic outlook surrounding the future of NAFTA despite the recent string of strong data releases.&…

  • 89% chance that the BOC will raise rates by 25bps today
    Wednesday, January 17, 2018 - 09:29 EST

    The Bank of Canada will release its monetary policy statement this morning with implied probabilities currently pricing in a 89% chance that the Bank will raise rates by 25bps.  Recent economic data indicates that the Canadian economy, as well a…

  • U.S. bank earnings continue to be released
    Tuesday, January 16, 2018 - 09:02 EST

    The economic calendar is light following the U.S. holiday yesterday with no major data being released out of Canada or the U.S.  U.S. bank earnings continue to be released this week with Citigroup reporting this morning.  Similar to the two…

  • Markets will be quieter today, with the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday
    Monday, January 15, 2018 - 10:14 EST

    Markets will be quieter today, with the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday in the United States.  In Canada, the focus will be on the Bank of Canada’s rate decision on Wednesday.  Consensus is still strong at 84% that the Bank will raise the…

  • U.S. headline CPI for December declined by 0.1% to 2.1% year over year
    Friday, January 12, 2018 - 09:49 EST

    U.S. headline CPI for December declined by 0.1% to 2.1% year over year.  However, core inflation ticked higher by 0.1%, to 1.8%.  The increase in core inflation reinforces the Fed expectation to increase rates this year.  Within the de…

  • Two year Government of Canada yields opened yesterday at their highest levels in almost a decade
    Thursday, January 11, 2018 - 08:59 EST

    Two year Government of Canada yields opened yesterday at their highest levels in almost a decade, based on expectations that the Bank of Canada would raise interest rates by 25bps next week.  However, late in the trading day, news reports were r…

  • The economic calendar continues to be light
    Wednesday, January 10, 2018 - 09:13 EST

    The economic calendar continues to be light today, although Minneapolis Fed Chair Kashkari spoke yesterday.  He commented that low-inflation around the world, not only in the U.S., continues to be a risk, and the signals are worth watching. …

  • Canada released its Business Outlook Survey yesterday
    Tuesday, January 9, 2018 - 09:12 EST

    Canada released its Business Outlook Survey yesterday, where investors looked for further clues that would point to the Bank of Canada raising interest rates next week.  Businesses indicated that rising inflationary and capacity pressures are on…

  • The strong employment numbers on Friday saw Canada add 78k jobs in December
    Monday, January 8, 2018 - 09:30 EST

    The strong employment numbers on Friday saw Canada add 78k jobs in December.  Back to back months of strong employment, leading to the unemployment rate at 5.7%, has moved expectations higher that the Bank of Canada will increase the Overnight R…

  • Job growth in Canada posted back to back months of strong data
    Friday, January 5, 2018 - 10:41 EST

    Job growth in Canada posted back to back months of strong data heading into year end.  December added 78.6k jobs, which was well above expectations of 2k.  Full-time employment accounted for 23.7k of the new jobs, while part-time contribute…

  • The Fed released its minutes from the December meeting
    Thursday, January 4, 2018 - 10:10 EST

    The Fed released its minutes from the December meeting, reiterating that it is on a gradual path towards removing monetary stimulus.  The FOMC decided to increase the Fed Funds Rate by 25bps at the past meeting, despite some participants voicing…

  • Fixed income and equity markets were relatively calm after the holiday season
    Wednesday, January 3, 2018 - 10:31 EST

    Fixed income and equity markets were relatively calm after the holiday season, as Canadian and U.S. equity markets moved higher to start the year.  WTI crude prices continue to track above $60/barrel, while the government of Canada 10-30yr sprea…

  • The New Year begins with focus on the recently passed U.S. tax reform bill
    Tuesday, January 2, 2018 - 09:51 EST

    The New Year begins with focus on the recently passed U.S. tax reform bill, which will see corporate taxes reduced from 35% to 21%.  This is expected to be positive for corporate profits in 2018, as well as a driver for GDP growth this year.&nbs…

  • Canadian GDP for October was flat for the month
    Friday, December 22, 2017 - 09:03 EST

    Canadian GDP for October was flat for the month, which was below expectations of +0.2%.  On a year over year basis, GDP growth is increasing at 3.4%.  The flat reading in October was a result of decreased production by oil sands companies.&…

  • Canadian retails sales jumped in October
    Thursday, December 21, 2017 - 09:04 EST

    Canadian retail sales jumped in October increasing by 1.5%, which was higher than expectations of 0.3%.  The strong number was largely due to an increase in auto sales, which indicates that consumers are still positive about the economy and will…

  • Overnight, the U.S. Senate passed the tax reform bill
    Wednesday, December 20, 2017 - 08:47 EST

    Overnight, the U.S. Senate passed the tax reform bill that will cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% as well as the increasing the budget deficit to $1.5 trillion.  The bill will now move to the House for a final vote today, with the new l…

  • The market continues to focus on the U.S. tax bill
    Tuesday, December 19, 2017 - 09:07 EST

    The market continues to focus on the U.S. tax bill, with the House voting this afternoon around 1:30 pm followed by the Senate later on.  Alongside the relatively strong macro tone, U.S. equity market continues to rally.  Equity futures are…

  • The Canadian credit market was very active last week
    Monday, December 18, 2017 - 09:42 EST

    Republicans revealed final details of the tax reform, to cut the corporate tax to 21% starting in 2018. The vote is expected to happen during the week. U.S. equities continued to rally, but dollar and treasuries traded lower. US Treasury yield curve…

  • BoC Governor Poloz spoke yesterday
    Friday, December 15, 2017 - 08:54 EST

    Bank of Canada Governor Poloz spoke yesterday and noted that NAFTA was not one of the top three items on his list that kept him up at night.  Although the Bank of Canada monetary policy statements have referenced uncertainty related to global tr…

  • U.S. retail sales for November increased by 0.8%, surpassing expectations
    Thursday, December 14, 2017 - 09:38 EST

    U.S. retail sales for November increased by 0.8%, surpassing expectations of 0.3%.  The surge was a result of the holiday shopping season pulled forward during U.S. Thanksgiving and Black Friday.  Vehicle sales were also firmer following th…

  • U.S. CPI increased by 0.4% in November
    Wednesday, December 13, 2017 - 09:06 EST

    U.S. CPI in November increased at expectations of +0.4% over the month.  Year over year, headline inflation is tracking at 2.2%, which is 0.2% higher than the previous month.  Inflation picked up largely from energy prices as gasoline rose…

  • The U.S. Producer Price Index increased by 0.4% m/m
    Tuesday, December 12, 2017 - 09:02 EST

    The U.S. Producer Price Index in November increased by 0.4% m/m that was higher than expectations of 0.3%. Prices increased as a result of gasoline and commodity prices.  Almost two-thirds of the increase was due to gasoline prices that increase…

  • Expectations are for the Fed to raise rates this week
    Monday, December 11, 2017 - 08:49 EST

    This week’s focus will be the last FOMC meeting of the year on Wednesday, where the expectation are for the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate by 25bps.  Last Friday’s jobs number showed that labour markets continue to be strong post the disrup…

  • The U.S. added 228k jobs in November
    Friday, December 8, 2017 - 09:06 EST

    The U.S. added 228k jobs in November, which was above consensus of +195k.  Two month revisions added a marginal 3k jobs.  Following the volatility in jobs numbers as a result of the hurricanes, the job market has posted strong back to back…

  • The BoC left the overnight rate unchanged at 1%
    Thursday, December 7, 2017 - 08:44 EST

    As expected, the Bank of Canada released its monetary policy statement yesterday and left the overnight rate unchanged at 1%.  Although the bank sees strong growth from the U.S. along with stabilizing oil prices, the global outlook remains subje…

  • The BoC will release its monetary policy statement this morning
    Wednesday, December 6, 2017 - 08:37 EST

    The Bank of Canada will release its monetary policy statement this morning, although the central bank is largely expected to leave rates unchanged.  Previously, the Bank has noted that growth in the second half of 2017 will slow compared to the…

  • BMO is the last of the big six Canadian banks to report this morning
    Tuesday, December 5, 2017 - 08:30 EST

    BMO is the last of the big six Canadian banks to report this morning with 2017 adjusted net income of $5.508bil that was up 10% y/y.  Canadian personal and commercial banking continued to see good performance with loans up 4% and deposits up 6%…

  • The U.S. Senate was able to pass the tax reform bill
    Monday, December 4, 2017 - 08:22 EST

    Over the weekend, the U.S. Senate was able to pass the tax reform bill which will be the largest overhaul in three decades.  However, the committee is still required to amalgamate the House and Senate versions of the bill that can be passed.&nbs…

  • Canada added a strong 79.5k jobs in November
    Friday, December 1, 2017 - 09:10 EST

    Canada added a strong 79.5k jobs in November, surpassing expectations of +10k.  The details were also positive as the Canadian economy added 29.6k full-time jobs and 49.9k part-time jobs.  With the large number of jobs added, the unemployme…

  • The Senate tax bill continues to be debated this week
    Thursday, November 30, 2017 - 08:15 EST

    The Senate tax bill continues to be debated this week, although Republicans are hopeful that a vote will be initiated by the end of the week.  However, discussion continues around whether to include a trigger for tax increases if economic growth…

  • Royal Bank is the second Canadian bank to report Q4 earnings
    Wednesday, November 29, 2017 - 09:51 EST

    Royal Bank is the second Canadian bank to report Q4 earnings, reporting $1.92 EPS, beating estimates of $1.87.  Year over year, earnings are up 10%, to $11.5 billion.  Canadian Banking saw solid loan growth of 6% y/y, which increased NIM by…

  • Scotiabank is the first of the banks to report Q4 earnings
    Tuesday, November 28, 2017 - 08:24 EST

    Scotiabank is the first of the Canadian banks to report Q4 earnings this morning with EPS of $1.65/share which was slightly below expectations of $1.66/share.  A decline in the capital markets business of 15% y/y contributed to the miss from low…

  • The U.S. Senate prepares to debate the tax reform bill
    Monday, November 27, 2017 - 09:57 EST

    Following the U.S. Thanksgiving and Black Friday holiday weekend, the U.S. Senate prepares to debate the tax reform bill this week.  The vote could come as early as Thursday, although at this current juncture, there are still several Republicans…

  • The ECB released its minutes from the October meeting
    Friday, November 24, 2017 - 08:58 EST

    The ECB released its minutes from the October meeting yesterday that provided some insight into the decision making process to taper quantitative easing starting next year.  Some ECB officials were worried that markets may have expected an exten…

  • Canadian retail sales for September squeezed out a small increase
    Thursday, November 23, 2017 - 09:19 EST

    Canadian retail sales for September squeezed out a small increase of 0.1% after a decline of 0.1% in the previous month.  Last month’s number saw broad based declines across most sectors, outside of motor vehicles and gasoline.  However,…

  • U.S. durable goods in October declined by 1.2%
    Wednesday, November 22, 2017 - 09:20 EST

    U.S. durable goods in October declined by 1.2%, against expectations of a 0.3% increase.  Based on the headline number, the decline indicates a potential cooling of capital goods orders, although the previous month showed a strong increase of 2.…

  • This morning RBC was deemed a globally systemic important bank
    Tuesday, November 21, 2017 - 08:48 EST

    This morning, RBC was deemed a globally systemic important bank.  Depending on the G-SIB tier, the rules require that an institution hold an additional 1%-3.5% of CET1 above Basel capital rules.  RBC has been placed in the lowest tier requi…

  • The fifth round of NAFTA negotiations is set to wrap up this week
    Monday, November 20, 2017 - 08:36 EST

    The fifth round of NAFTA negotiations is set to wrap up this week following discussions over the weekend.  Although there has been no major news of setbacks during this round, there has also been no progress.  Mexico has indicated that the…

  • Canadian inflation in October increased by 0.1%
    Friday, November 17, 2017 - 08:58 EST

    Canadian inflation in October increased by 0.1% over the month, which matched expectations.  Overall, annual inflation is now tracking at 1.4% which declined 0.2% from the previous month.  Clothing/Footwear increased the most but was offset…

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