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Get a complete view of the world as seen through the eyes of our investment professionals each and every business day shortly after the opening bell.

The information contained herein is intended for advisors for general information only and is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy. All opinions contained in the commentary and expressed by the portfolio manager are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith without legal responsibility. All market data is sourced from Bloomberg.​​​​​

  • U.S. non-farm payrolls for January saw an increase of 200k
    Friday, February 2, 2018 - 08:59 EST U.S. non-farm payrolls for January saw an increase of 200k, which was above expectations of +180k.  The unemployment rate remained unchanged at this cycle’s low of 4.1%.
  • The Federal Reserve released its monetary policy decision yesterday
    Thursday, February 1, 2018 - 09:09 EST The Federal Reserve released its monetary policy decision yesterday afternoon and decided to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged.  The FOMC statement reiterated that the U.S.
  • The FOMC will hold its rate decision later this afternoon
    Wednesday, January 31, 2018 - 08:34 EST The FOMC will hold its rate decision later this afternoon.  This meeting will be the final one for Yellen, who will pass the baton to Jerome Powell.
  • NAFTA representatives commented that good progress had been made...
    Tuesday, January 30, 2018 - 09:07 EST After wrapping up the sixth round of NAFTA negotiations yesterday, representatives from the three countries commented that good progress had been made although at a very slow pace. 
  • U.S. core PCE held flat over the year at 1.5%
    Monday, January 29, 2018 - 08:59 EST The U.S. PCE deflator for December came in at expectations of 1.7%, which was down 0.1% from the previous month.  However, the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, core PCE, held flat year over year at 1.5%. 
  • Canadian CPI for December saw a decline of 0.4%
    Friday, January 26, 2018 - 08:51 EST Canadian CPI for December saw a decline of 0.4% with year over year headline inflation at 1.9%.  This was down slightly from the previous month’s figure of 2.1%.  December is typically a weaker month for inflation data, as the Bank of Canada expects CPI to hover around the 2% range over the next two years.  Also positive in the details was core inflation that saw all three measures move higher by about 0.1%.  The first look at annualized fourth quarter GDP in the U.S.
  • BoC Governor Poloz spoke this morning
    Thursday, January 25, 2018 - 09:13 EST Bank of Canada Governor Poloz spoke this morning on CNBC and commented on the recent decision to increase the overnight rate by 25bps.  At this current juncture, the BOC is totally data dependent, so the recent string of strong economic data reinforces the central bank’s decision to raise rates.  However, Poloz reiterated that it is important not to be mechanical about rates or to use strict rules.  Ultimately, some of his biggest concerns include NAFTA, household debt and cyber security risk.  The BOC is certain that the economy will be more sensitive to rate hikes with
  • The sixth round of NAFTA negotiations continue today
    Wednesday, January 24, 2018 - 08:56 EST The sixth round of NAFTA negotiations continue today, although there have been few headlines emerging from the talks.  Despite this, many of the world leaders have gathered in Davos this week with 11 members announcing an agreement to save the Trans-Pacific Partnership pact.  Previously, President Trump publicly noted his displeasure for TPP and that the U.S. will not participate in the trade deal expected to be signed in early March.  Prime Minister Trudeau indicated that Canada will partake in TPP.  In the U.S.
  • Canada is estimated to have the second strongest growth among G7 peers
    Tuesday, January 23, 2018 - 08:46 EST Yesterday, the IMF upgraded global growth expectations to 3.9% in 2018 and 2019 as a result of the U.S. tax cuts and Euro area growth.  Canada is estimated to have the second strongest growth among G7 peers at 2.3% this year. The U.S.
  • Markets have not reacted to the government shutdown
    Monday, January 22, 2018 - 08:22 EST The U.S.
  • The U.S. government is again at risk of a shutdown
    Friday, January 19, 2018 - 09:08 EST The U.S. government is again at risk of a shutdown at midnight today, although the U.S. Congress was able to pass a bill yesterday night that would extend short-term funding until February 12.  However, the bill now moves to the Senate where Democrats may not support the vote.  There is still divide between the two parties related to the defense budget and legislation around undocumented immigrants.  Ultimately, to avoid a shutdown, some sort of short-term measure needs to be negotiated while the Democrats and Republicans hash out their differences.
  • The BOC raised rates by 25bps yesterday
    Thursday, January 18, 2018 - 09:16 EST The Bank of Canada raised rates by 25bps yesterday pushing the Overnight Rate up to 1.25%.  Within the statement, the BOC highlighted the cloudy economic outlook surrounding the future of NAFTA despite the recent string of strong data releases.  The Canadian economy is expected to grow at a 2.2% pace in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019.  GDP will be driven less by consumption and residential investment, given higher interest rates and new mortgage rules, although business investment should contribute more.  Ultimately, the economic outlook is expected to warrant higher interest rat
  • 89% chance that the BOC will raise rates by 25bps today
    Wednesday, January 17, 2018 - 09:29 EST The Bank of Canada will release its monetary policy statement this morning with implied probabilities currently pricing in a 89% chance that the Bank will raise rates by 25bps.  Recent economic data indicates that the Canadian economy, as well as the job market, is robust, however overhang from NAFTA uncertainties could still give reason for the BOC to remain on pause.  This afternoon, the Fed will release its Beige Book that will encompass the recent holiday season.  Personal consumption and retail sales were strong during that period driven by Black Friday and the holiday s
  • U.S. bank earnings continue to be released
    Tuesday, January 16, 2018 - 09:02 EST The economic calendar is light following the U.S. holiday yesterday with no major data being released out of Canada or the U.S.  U.S.
  • Markets will be quieter today, with the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday
    Monday, January 15, 2018 - 10:14 EST Markets will be quieter today, with the Martin Luther King Jr.
  • U.S. headline CPI for December declined by 0.1% to 2.1% year over year
    Friday, January 12, 2018 - 09:49 EST U.S. headline CPI for December declined by 0.1% to 2.1% year over year.  However, core inflation ticked higher by 0.1%, to 1.8%.  The increase in core inflation reinforces the Fed expectation to increase rates this year.  Within the details, energy prices fell in the month, while food inflation moved marginally higher.  U.S.
  • Two year Government of Canada yields opened yesterday at their highest levels in almost a decade
    Thursday, January 11, 2018 - 08:59 EST Two year Government of Canada yields opened yesterday at their highest levels in almost a decade, based on expectations that the Bank of Canada would raise interest rates by 25bps next week.  However, late in the trading day, news reports were released that an anonymous Canadian official believed President Trump would pull out of NAFTA by the end of January.  The rumour led to the Canadian dollar selling off by approximately 0.75% against the U.S.
  • The economic calendar continues to be light
    Wednesday, January 10, 2018 - 09:13 EST The economic calendar continues to be light today, although Minneapolis Fed Chair Kashkari spoke yesterday.  He commented that low-inflation around the world, not only in the U.S., continues to be a risk, and the signals are worth watching.  In his eyes, the economic recovery has been slow, although forward looking equity markets are showing optimism on global economic growth.  Otherwise, several of the Canadian banks have commented on the effect of the lower U.S.
  • Canada released its Business Outlook Survey yesterday
    Tuesday, January 9, 2018 - 09:12 EST Canada released its Business Outlook Survey yesterday, where investors looked for further clues that would point to the Bank of Canada raising interest rates next week.  Businesses indicated that rising inflationary and capacity pressures are on the horizon, which would justify a potential rate increase.  Even though the recent monetary policy statement addressed the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations, Canadian businesses are reflecting a smaller degree of concern and expect to extend hiring and business investment.  Inflation expectations that CPI will be in the rang
  • The strong employment numbers on Friday saw Canada add 78k jobs in December
    Monday, January 8, 2018 - 09:30 EST The strong employment numbers on Friday saw Canada add 78k jobs in December.  Back to back months of strong employment, leading to the unemployment rate at 5.7%, has moved expectations higher that the Bank of Canada will increase the Overnight Rate by 25bps on January 17.  Current implied probabilities stand at 84%, with 2-year and 10-year Canada yields moving 5bps and 7bps higher, respectively, after the employment data release.  There is limited economic data being released out of Canada this week that could change the rate hike expectations.  In the U.S., the economic
  • Job growth in Canada posted back to back months of strong data
    Friday, January 5, 2018 - 10:41 EST Job growth in Canada posted back to back months of strong data heading into year end.  December added 78.6k jobs, which was well above expectations of 2k.  Full-time employment accounted for 23.7k of the new jobs, while part-time contributed 54.9k.  The large number this month pushed the unemployment rate down to this cycle’s low, from 6.0% to 5.7%, even as the participation rate ticked up 0.1% to 65.8%.  By region, Quebec and Alberta were the strongest, each adding approximately 26k.  U.S.
  • The Fed released its minutes from the December meeting
    Thursday, January 4, 2018 - 10:10 EST The Fed released its minutes from the December meeting, reiterating that it is on a gradual path towards removing monetary stimulus.  The FOMC decided to increase the Fed Funds Rate by 25bps at the past meeting, despite some participants voicing concerns as a result of persistently weak inflation, leading to declines in longer term inflation expectations.  Despite this, members generally agreed that the continued flattening of the yield curve was not unusual at this point in the cycle, although observing a future inversion of the curve could adversely affect financial conditions.&
  • Fixed income and equity markets were relatively calm after the holiday season
    Wednesday, January 3, 2018 - 10:31 EST Fixed income and equity markets were relatively calm after the holiday season, as Canadian and U.S. equity markets moved higher to start the year.  WTI crude prices continue to track above $60/barrel, while the government of Canada 10-30yr spread remains near this cycle’s low, at 23bps.  The economic calendar is light to start the year, with most investors focused on jobs data out of Canada and the U.S. on Friday.  However, the FOMC will release its minutes today from the December meeting that saw the Fed raise rates by 25bps.  As labour markets in the U.S.
  • The New Year begins with focus on the recently passed U.S. tax reform bill
    Tuesday, January 2, 2018 - 09:51 EST The New Year begins with focus on the recently passed U.S. tax reform bill, which will see corporate taxes reduced from 35% to 21%.  This is expected to be positive for corporate profits in 2018, as well as a driver for GDP growth this year.  The shortened week will see a lighter economic calendar that will be focused around the U.S. non-farm payrolls for December, to be released on Friday.  The expectation is for jobs to increase by 188k for the month.  Strong labour markets have been fueling consumption, with MasterCard reporting that U.S.
  • Canadian GDP for October was flat for the month
    Friday, December 22, 2017 - 09:03 EST Canadian GDP for October was flat for the month, which was below expectations of +0.2%.  On a year over year basis, GDP growth is increasing at 3.4%.  The flat reading in October was a result of decreased production by oil sands companies.  Non-conventional oil’s contribution to GDP is down 7% since hitting a high back in May.  The unexpected slowdown this month adds to the argument that second half growth in Canada is slowing.  Full year GDP is currently tracking around 3%, although economists are expecting growth to decelerate in 2018 around +2.2%.  In the U.
  • Canadian retails sales jumped in October
    Thursday, December 21, 2017 - 09:04 EST Canadian retail sales jumped in October increasing by 1.5%, which was higher than expectations of 0.3%.  The strong number was largely due to an increase in auto sales, which indicates that consumers are still positive about the economy and willing to purchase new cars.  Excluding gasoline and vehicle sales, receipts increased over the month at 1.1% with sales up across every province in Canada.  Canadian headline inflation for November moved higher to 2.1% from 1.4% in the previous month.  The rise was primarily driven by gasoline prices that were up 7.4% over the month
  • Overnight, the U.S. Senate passed the tax reform bill
    Wednesday, December 20, 2017 - 08:47 EST Overnight, the U.S. Senate passed the tax reform bill that will cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% as well as the increasing the budget deficit to $1.5 trillion.  The bill will now move to the House for a final vote today, with the new legislative measures expected to be positive for growth over the next couple of years.  The U.S.
  • The market continues to focus on the U.S. tax bill
    Tuesday, December 19, 2017 - 09:07 EST The market continues to focus on the U.S. tax bill, with the House voting this afternoon around 1:30 pm followed by the Senate later on.  Alongside the relatively strong macro tone, U.S. equity market continues to rally.  Equity futures are pointing to a positive open this morning. On the credit side, the market had a quiet start yesterday. We saw healthy two ways trades in corporate bonds. Spreads remain constructive, with deposit notes and NVCC closed 1-2 bps tighter. Equity Markets:
  • The Canadian credit market was very active last week
    Monday, December 18, 2017 - 09:42 EST Republicans revealed final details of the tax reform, to cut the corporate tax to 21% starting in 2018. The vote is expected to happen during the week. U.S. equities continued to rally, but dollar and treasuries traded lower. US Treasury yield curve flattened once again last week, with the delta between 5Yr and 30Yr now lower than 55bps. Currently, the 30Yr Treasury yield is 2.69%, which is 7bps lower than the beginning of last week.
  • BoC Governor Poloz spoke yesterday
    Friday, December 15, 2017 - 08:54 EST Bank of Canada Governor Poloz spoke yesterday and noted that NAFTA was not one of the top three items on his list that kept him up at night.  Although the Bank of Canada monetary policy statements have referenced uncertainty related to global trade and NAFTA over the last several months, Poloz indicated that he would set aside issues of NAFTA uncertainty until new information is presented.  Also, the U.S.
  • U.S. retail sales for November increased by 0.8%, surpassing expectations
    Thursday, December 14, 2017 - 09:38 EST U.S. retail sales for November increased by 0.8%, surpassing expectations of 0.3%.  The surge was a result of the holiday shopping season pulled forward during U.S.
  • U.S. CPI increased by 0.4% in November
    Wednesday, December 13, 2017 - 09:06 EST U.S. CPI in November increased at expectations of +0.4% over the month.  Year over year, headline inflation is tracking at 2.2%, which is 0.2% higher than the previous month.  Inflation picked up largely from energy prices as gasoline rose by 7.3%.  Core CPI year over year declined by 0.1% to 1.7%, which may indicate that inflation has not garnered strong enough momentum despite the robust labour market.  However, the FOMC releases its monetary policy statement this afternoon and is largely expected to increase rates by 25bps.
  • The U.S. Producer Price Index increased by 0.4% m/m
    Tuesday, December 12, 2017 - 09:02 EST The U.S. Producer Price Index in November increased by 0.4% m/m that was higher than expectations of 0.3%. Prices increased as a result of gasoline and commodity prices.  Almost two-thirds of the increase was due to gasoline prices that increased by 15.8%, the largest increase since 2009. Stripping out more volatile items, core PPI still increased by 0.3% over the month.
  • Expectations are for the Fed to raise rates this week
    Monday, December 11, 2017 - 08:49 EST This week’s focus will be the last FOMC meeting of the year on Wednesday, where the expectation are for the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate by 25bps.  Last Friday’s jobs number showed that labour markets continue to be strong post the disruptions from the hurricanes with the unemployment rate tracking at this cycle’s low.  The expectation to increase rates coincides with the program to slowly unwind the Fed’s balance sheet that began in October.  In Washington, members will once again gather at an inter-sessional meeting to discuss NAFTA.  These meetings are not being pr
  • The U.S. added 228k jobs in November
    Friday, December 8, 2017 - 09:06 EST The U.S. added 228k jobs in November, which was above consensus of +195k.  Two month revisions added a marginal 3k jobs.  Following the volatility in jobs numbers as a result of the hurricanes, the job market has posted strong back to back monthly gains.  Both the participation rate and unemployment rate stayed steady at 62.7% and 4.1%, respectively.  Although not as strong as forecasted, hourly wages still increased by 0.2% over the month and currently stands at 2.5% year over year. 
  • The BoC left the overnight rate unchanged at 1%
    Thursday, December 7, 2017 - 08:44 EST As expected, the Bank of Canada released its monetary policy statement yesterday and left the overnight rate unchanged at 1%.  Although the bank sees strong growth from the U.S.
  • The BoC will release its monetary policy statement this morning
    Wednesday, December 6, 2017 - 08:37 EST The Bank of Canada will release its monetary policy statement this morning, although the central bank is largely expected to leave rates unchanged.  Previously, the Bank has noted that growth in the second half of 2017 will slow compared to the first half but still at a positive rate.  In addition, the outlook remains uncertain in regards to NAFTA renegotiations along with global geopolitical developments.  Domestically, the Bank still sees risks related to household debt and a potential slowing of the housing market as a result of higher interest rates.  Employment in C
  • BMO is the last of the big six Canadian banks to report this morning
    Tuesday, December 5, 2017 - 08:30 EST BMO is the last of the big six Canadian banks to report this morning with 2017 adjusted net income of $5.508bil that was up 10% y/y.  Canadian personal and commercial banking continued to see good performance with loans up 4% and deposits up 6% year over year.  Canadian Net Interest Margin Securities (NIMS) in P&C were up 5bps q/q with positive operating leverage of 1.7%.  U.S. personal and commercial banking also saw strong loan and deposit growth with NIMs up 3bps q/q.  However, adjusted net income was down 3% y/y as a result of a weaker U.S.
  • The U.S. Senate was able to pass the tax reform bill
    Monday, December 4, 2017 - 08:22 EST Over the weekend, the U.S. Senate was able to pass the tax reform bill which will be the largest overhaul in three decades.  However, the committee is still required to amalgamate the House and Senate versions of the bill that can be passed.  The similarities from the previously proposed House bill include a reduction in corporate tax rates from 35% to 20% and limit on net interest deductibility for corporations to 30% of income.
  • Canada added a strong 79.5k jobs in November
    Friday, December 1, 2017 - 09:10 EST Canada added a strong 79.5k jobs in November, surpassing expectations of +10k.  The details were also positive as the Canadian economy added 29.6k full-time jobs and 49.9k part-time jobs.  With the large number of jobs added, the unemployment rate dipped from 6.3% to 5.9%.  By sector, construction and manufacturing continue to be positive, adding 46.6k jobs while the service producing industry added 42k.  Most of the jobs were created in Ontario, Quebec and BC.  Canadian GDP for September moved higher by 0.2% m/m which led to year over year GDP growth of 3.3%. 
  • The Senate tax bill continues to be debated this week
    Thursday, November 30, 2017 - 08:15 EST The Senate tax bill continues to be debated this week, although Republicans are hopeful that a vote will be initiated by the end of the week.  However, discussion continues around whether to include a trigger for tax increases if economic growth does not meet revenue targets.  This measure could ease concerns as the current tax bill would cut tax revenue by approximately $1.4 trillion.  WTI crude prices continue to hold above $57/barrel and should garner additional price support, after OPEEC agreed to extend production cuts until the end of next year.  They are also in t
  • Royal Bank is the second Canadian bank to report Q4 earnings
    Wednesday, November 29, 2017 - 09:51 EST Royal Bank is the second Canadian bank to report Q4 earnings, reporting $1.92 EPS, beating estimates of $1.87.
  • Scotiabank is the first of the banks to report Q4 earnings
    Tuesday, November 28, 2017 - 08:24 EST Scotiabank is the first of the Canadian banks to report Q4 earnings this morning with EPS of $1.65/share which was slightly below expectations of $1.66/share.  A decline in the capital markets business of 15% y/y contributed to the miss from lower volatility in fixed income trading.  However, provisions for credit losses continue to trend positively in the fourth quarter, which were down 3bps from last quarter to 42bps.  As a result of strong internal capital generation, the CET1 ratio increased by 20bps from Q3 2017 to 11.5%.  Announced along with earnings was news for
  • The U.S. Senate prepares to debate the tax reform bill
    Monday, November 27, 2017 - 09:57 EST Following the U.S. Thanksgiving and Black Friday holiday weekend, the U.S. Senate prepares to debate the tax reform bill this week.  The vote could come as early as Thursday, although at this current juncture, there are still several Republicans who have publicly uncommitted to supporting the bill.  Other Senators have argued that even a small uptick in growth would offset the cost of adding approximately $1.5 trillion in debt. 
  • The ECB released its minutes from the October meeting
    Friday, November 24, 2017 - 08:58 EST The ECB released its minutes from the October meeting yesterday that provided some insight into the decision making process to taper quantitative easing starting next year.  Some ECB officials were worried that markets may have expected an extension to QE and as a result wanted to provide more transparency.  The central bank also added that setting a firm end date for the end of QE might cause more tightening in monetary conditions than otherwise ideal.  However, concerns that the open ended nature of the program should not be justified in the absence of any new major shocks.
  • Canadian retail sales for September squeezed out a small increase
    Thursday, November 23, 2017 - 09:19 EST Canadian retail sales for September squeezed out a small increase of 0.1% after a decline of 0.1% in the previous month.  Last month’s number saw broad based declines across most sectors, outside of motor vehicles and gasoline.  However, the expectation for this month was for a strong rebound of 1.0%, so the 0.1% increase fell well short.  The continued disappointment in retail sales data reinforces the Bank of Canada’s view that growth in the second half of the year will subdued compared with strong growth in the first half.  In terms of volumes, sales also declined by
  • U.S. durable goods in October declined by 1.2%
    Wednesday, November 22, 2017 - 09:20 EST U.S. durable goods in October declined by 1.2%, against expectations of a 0.3% increase.  Based on the headline number, the decline indicates a potential cooling of capital goods orders, although the previous month showed a strong increase of 2.2%.  September’s number was revised higher from 2.0%, previously.  Offsetting the October headline decline was an increase of shipment volumes for the month of +0.4%.  Capital goods non-defense ex air, which strips out more volatile items, also declined for the month by 0.5%.
  • This morning RBC was deemed a globally systemic important bank
    Tuesday, November 21, 2017 - 08:48 EST This morning, RBC was deemed a globally systemic important bank.  Depending on the G-SIB tier, the rules require that an institution hold an additional 1%-3.5% of CET1 above Basel capital rules.  RBC has been placed in the lowest tier required to hold an additional 1% of common equity tier 1(CET1).  RBC was previously deemed a domestically systemic important bank, which under OSFI already required the bank to hold 1% of additional CET1.  As a result, the announcement should not materially change the amount of regulatory capital held at RBC going forward.
  • The fifth round of NAFTA negotiations is set to wrap up this week
    Monday, November 20, 2017 - 08:36 EST The fifth round of NAFTA negotiations is set to wrap up this week following discussions over the weekend.  Although there has been no major news of setbacks during this round, there has also been no progress.  Mexico has indicated that the U.S. proposal to increase the rules related to autos requiring U.S. made parts as unworkable, while the countries are also looking at a review mechanism that will evaluate NAFTA every five years without an automatic termination clause. 
  • Canadian inflation in October increased by 0.1%
    Friday, November 17, 2017 - 08:58 EST Canadian inflation in October increased by 0.1% over the month, which matched expectations.  Overall, annual inflation is now tracking at 1.4% which declined 0.2% from the previous month.  Clothing/Footwear increased the most but was offset by declines in recreation/education and energy/gasoline.

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