Daily Market Commentary

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Get a complete view of the world as seen through the eyes of our investment professionals each and every business day shortly after the opening bell.

The information contained herein is intended for advisors for general information only and is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy. All opinions contained in the commentary and expressed by the portfolio manager are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith without legal responsibility. All market data is sourced from Bloomberg.​​​​​

  • The ECB released its minutes from the October meeting
    Friday, November 24, 2017 - 08:58 EST

    The ECB released its minutes from the October meeting yesterday that provided some insight into the decision making process to taper quantitative easing starting next year.  Some ECB officials were worried that markets may have expected an exten…

  • Canadian retail sales for September squeezed out a small increase
    Thursday, November 23, 2017 - 09:19 EST

    Canadian retail sales for September squeezed out a small increase of 0.1% after a decline of 0.1% in the previous month.  Last month’s number saw broad based declines across most sectors, outside of motor vehicles and gasoline.  However,…

  • U.S. durable goods in October declined by 1.2%
    Wednesday, November 22, 2017 - 09:20 EST

    U.S. durable goods in October declined by 1.2%, against expectations of a 0.3% increase.  Based on the headline number, the decline indicates a potential cooling of capital goods orders, although the previous month showed a strong increase of 2.…

  • This morning RBC was deemed a globally systemic important bank
    Tuesday, November 21, 2017 - 08:48 EST

    This morning, RBC was deemed a globally systemic important bank.  Depending on the G-SIB tier, the rules require that an institution hold an additional 1%-3.5% of CET1 above Basel capital rules.  RBC has been placed in the lowest tier requi…

  • The fifth round of NAFTA negotiations is set to wrap up this week
    Monday, November 20, 2017 - 08:36 EST

    The fifth round of NAFTA negotiations is set to wrap up this week following discussions over the weekend.  Although there has been no major news of setbacks during this round, there has also been no progress.  Mexico has indicated that the…

  • Canadian inflation in October increased by 0.1%
    Friday, November 17, 2017 - 08:58 EST

    Canadian inflation in October increased by 0.1% over the month, which matched expectations.  Overall, annual inflation is now tracking at 1.4% which declined 0.2% from the previous month.  Clothing/Footwear increased the most but was offset…

  • BOC spoke yesterday about monetary policy in uncertain times
    Thursday, November 16, 2017 - 08:59 EST

    Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins spoke yesterday about monetary policy in uncertain times.  She reiterated the Bank’s current stance that the Canadian economy is progressing strongly although less monetary stimulus will likely be…

  • Retail sales in the U.S. continue to be positive
    Wednesday, November 15, 2017 - 09:26 EST

    Retail sales in the U.S. continue to be positive in October, increasing by 0.2% versus expectations of a flat reading.  Last month’s number was revised higher to 1.9% from 1.6% which was also encouraging.  Purchases from auto dealers, as…

  • The U.S. Producer Price Index for October increased
    Tuesday, November 14, 2017 - 08:59 EST

    The U.S. Producer Price Index for October increased 0.4% m/m, which beat estimates of +0.1%.  Wholesale prices increased as a result of higher margins at fuel retailers, which represented almost half the gains.  Excluding food, energy and t…

  • The U.S. will begin to debate the tax reform bill
    Monday, November 13, 2017 - 09:30 EST

    The bond market in Canada is closed today to observe Remembrance Day over the weekend.  In the US, the House and Senate will begin to debate the tax reform bill.  The hope is that the House will vote on the bill as early as Thursday. …

  • Bond traders view the recent oil rally as unsustainable
    Tuesday, November 7, 2017 - 09:47 EST

    The latest oil rally sent the WTI price higher at US$57 a barrel this morning. However, 10 year U.S Treasury yields traded marginally lower. Bond traders view the recent oil rally as unsustainable, or the Fed tightening will be too fast to stimulate…

  • Oil extended its rally
    Monday, November 6, 2017 - 11:06 EST

    Oil (WTI Crude) extended its rally toward to US$56 a barrel at the market open largely on news from Saudi Arabia. Saudi authorities arrested Prince Alwaleed bin Talal in a crackdown on corruption. Market viewed this action as further power consolidat…

  • Canadian employment was strong again in October
    Friday, November 3, 2017 - 08:58 EDT

    Canadian employment was strong again in October increasing by 35.3k, higher than consensus of +15k.  All the net additions were full time employment gains rising 88.7k, offset by declines in part-time employment of 53.4k.  The participation…

  • The Bank of England raised rates by 25bps
    Thursday, November 2, 2017 - 08:51 EDT

    The Bank of England decided to join other central banks this morning by raising rates by 25bps to 0.50%.  The BOE will continue to hold asset purchases at 435bil pounds although a small reduction to stimulus will be warranted as spare capacity h…

  • The FOMC will release its monetary policy statement this afternoon
    Wednesday, November 1, 2017 - 09:21 EDT

    The FOMC will release its monetary policy statement this afternoon, expectations are for rates to remain unchanged.  The Fed has already outlined its plans to reduce its balance sheet, so investors will be looking for additional clues that would…

  • Canadian GDP for August declined
    Tuesday, October 31, 2017 - 08:59 EDT

    Canadian GDP for August declined by 0.1% m/m, which was below expectations of +0.1%.  This was the first decline in GDP since October 2016, although on a year over year basis, the Canadian economy still grew by 3.5%.  The drop in growth ove…

  • U.S. personal spending increased in September
    Monday, October 30, 2017 - 08:58 EDT

    U.S. personal spending increased at 1.0% for the month of September, beating expectations of +0.9%.  Personal consumption was the strongest since August 2009, similar to the GDP report last week, it was driven by strong motor vehicle purchases f…

  • Clone of The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged
    Friday, October 27, 2017 - 09:08 EDT

    The first reading of U.S. third quarter GDP came in at 3.0% growth, beating expectations of 2.6%.  Similar to last quarter, growth was bolstered by personal consumption that rose at 2.4% in Q3.  Business investment was mixed but did increas…

  • The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged
    Thursday, October 26, 2017 - 08:31 EDT

    The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at yesterday’s meeting.  The overall tone of the statement leaned towards the dovish side.  The Bank wished to monitor how interest rate hikes will impact the economy, and as a result, will be cauti…

  • The Bank of Canada will release its Monetary Policy announcement this morning
    Wednesday, October 25, 2017 - 08:43 EDT

    This morning, the Bank of Canada will release its Monetary Policy announcement followed by Governor Poloz speaking at a press conference.  Following the two rate hikes to bring its policy in line post the oil price shocks in 2016, Poloz has offe…

  • The government will provide its Fall Economic Statement this afternoon
    Tuesday, October 24, 2017 - 08:44 EDT

    The government will provide its Fall Economic Statement this afternoon as well as a fiscal budget update.  The Canadian economy has been growing at a very strong pace for the first half of the year, which should trim the previous forecasted budg…

  • President Trump is expected to make his decision, as early as this week, on who will be the chair of the Federal Reserve
    Monday, October 23, 2017 - 08:58 EDT

    President Trump is expected to make his decision as early as this week on who will be the Chair of the Federal Reserve.  Reports suggest that there are three candidates in the running including current Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who could be renewe…

  • Canadian headline inflation for September moved higher
    Friday, October 20, 2017 - 09:02 EDT

    Canadian headline inflation for September moved higher to 1.6% y/y from the previous month although a tad below expectations of 1.7%.  Headline CPI accelerated this month due to higher gasoline prices as the hurricanes in the U.S. affected price…

  • The Fed released the Biege Book for the September to early October period
    Thursday, October 19, 2017 - 08:53 EDT

    The Fed released the Beige Book for the September to early October period that indicated that the pace of growth was split between modest and moderate, with growth impacted by regions affected by Hurricane Harvey and Irma including sectors such as tr…

  • OSFI released the finalized version of the B-20 rules yesterday
    Wednesday, October 18, 2017 - 08:33 EDT

    OSFI released the finalized version of the B-20 rules yesterday afternoon that will affect mortgage lending starting on January 1, 2018.  Mortgage applications will need to qualify at the higher of the contractual mortgage rate plus 200bps or th…

  • The Bank of Canada released its Business Outlook Survey yesterday
    Tuesday, October 17, 2017 - 09:43 EDT

    The Bank of Canada released its Business Outlook Survey yesterday that included data from August to September.  Overall, the expectation for future sales have pulled back, which are now at the lowest levels of the year.  Those who were surv…

  • BOC Governor Poloz spoke on Saturday
    Monday, October 16, 2017 - 09:02 EDT

    Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke over the weekend about “The Economy and Monetary Policy” at the G30 International Banking Seminar.  In regards to inflation, she indicated that her best guess is the soft inflation readings would not persist and…

  • U.S. retail sales rebounded in September
    Friday, October 13, 2017 - 10:00 EDT

    U.S. retail sales rebounded in September with an increase of 1.6% m/m after falling -0.1% in the prior month.  The boost in the month was the result of the hurricanes in Texas and Florida that saw motor vehicles replaced following the storms.&nb…

  • The FOMC minutes were released yesterday
    Thursday, October 12, 2017 - 08:40 EDT

    The FOMC minutes were released yesterday, as Fed members discussed why inflation continues to remain soft.  Members either viewed inflation as being transitory, which has been the language continually repeated in their statements, although many…

  • There is an expectation this week for additional ABS issuance
    Wednesday, October 11, 2017 - 08:39 EDT

    Tensions in Catalonia have calmed somewhat following the Catalan President’s address that he would suspend any current actions towards independence following last week’s independence vote.  He indicated that he would engage in dialogue with…

  • Spanish equity markets are down over 1% this morning
    Tuesday, October 10, 2017 - 08:26 EDT

    Spanish equity markets are down over 1% this morning after the Spanish government announced that their police forces are ready to arrest Catalan President Puigdemont if he announces the region as an independent state.  Spain viewed last week’s…

  • Canadian employment remains strong
    Friday, October 6, 2017 - 09:09 EDT

    Canadian employment remains strong adding 10k jobs in September, although slightly below consensus of +12k.  The Canadian economy has continued to add jobs every month since December of last year and is averaging just over 25k jobs created per m…

  • Minutes from the September ECB meeting were released this morning
    Thursday, October 5, 2017 - 09:18 EDT

    Minutes from the September ECB meeting were released this morning, which indicated that the reassessment to remove stimulus must be gradual and cautious.  In addition, the central bank must be mindful of market expectations on future policy.&nbs…

  • BOC deputy's governor remarks yesterday essentially removed the potential of another rate hike this year
    Wednesday, October 4, 2017 - 09:02 EDT

    Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Leduc remarks yesterday essentially removed the potential of another rate hike this year.  He stated that the Canadian economy has performed a lot better than expected over the past five quarters; however the econo…

  • The Canadian new issue market was active again yesterday
    Tuesday, October 3, 2017 - 08:34 EDT

    There were two Fed speakers yesterday with Dallas Fed President Kaplan noting that the hurricanes affecting Texas and Florida will create weakness in Q3 growth.  However, he still expects 2017 growth to measure around 2.25% or a little higher.&n…

  • Yields of Spanish government bonds are wider this morning
    Monday, October 2, 2017 - 10:21 EDT

    Yields of Spanish government bonds are wider this morning following a referendum vote that saw approximately 90% in favour of Catalonia separating from Spain to become an independent republic.  The details of the vote are still unclear as it is…

  • Canadian GDP for July came in flat
    Friday, September 29, 2017 - 09:50 EDT

    Canadian GDP for July came in flat with year over year GDP increasing at 3.8%.  In July, oil and gas output declined by 1.8% while wholesale output increased by 2%.  Housing continued to be a slight drag on GDP following Ontario’s new rul…

  • U.S. Q2 GDP was revised marginally higher
    Thursday, September 28, 2017 - 09:07 EDT

    The final reading for Q2 U.S. GDP was revised marginally higher from 3.0% to 3.1%.  Personal consumption remained mostly unchanged at 3.3% and continued to be the primary driver of second quarter growth in the U.S.  BOC Governor Poloz spoke…

  • Janet Yellen spoke yesterday on inflation and monetary policy
    Wednesday, September 27, 2017 - 10:42 EDT

    Janet Yellen spoke yesterday on inflation and monetary policy, which held an overall hawkish tone.  She warned markets not to underestimate the potential of additional rate hikes this year and that the Fed should also be wary of moving too gradu…

  • ECB President Mario Draghi spoke yesterday
    Tuesday, September 26, 2017 - 09:46 EDT

    ECB President Mario Draghi spoke yesterday, indicating that the Euro area recovery has broadly accelerated, although the pass-through of monetary stimulus still needs to translate into stronger inflation.  As a result, the ECB still expects to r…

  • The third round of NAFTA negotiations began over the weekend
    Monday, September 25, 2017 - 08:56 EDT

    Over the weekend, German Chancellor Merkel won her fourth term.  However, Merkel’s CDU party lost seats from the last election, only securing 33% of votes.  As a result, Merkel will be required to form a coalition with other parties in or…

  • Canadian retail sales rose 0.4% in July
    Friday, September 22, 2017 - 09:38 EDT

    Canadian retail sales rose 0.4% in July. In terms of volume, sales fell 0.2%, however excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.2%. Consumer spending has been persistently solid in the past two years. There appears to be no obvious signs of downside risks…

  • As expected the Fed funds rate remains unchanged at 1%
    Thursday, September 21, 2017 - 09:39 EDT

    As expected, the Fed funds rate remains unchanged at 1% and announced that they will gradually reduce their $4.5 trillion balance sheet starting in October. FOMC members’ dot plot projections implied one more 25bps hike in 2017, three hikes in 2018…

  • While awaiting today's Fed rate decision global markets are generally calm
    Wednesday, September 20, 2017 - 09:09 EDT

    While awaiting today’s Fed rate decision and press conference, global financial markets are generally calm. With a widespread expectation that the Fed will start balance sheet unwinding in October, government bond yields edged higher globally. …

  • BOC deputy governor, Tim Lane, spoke publicly on global trade yesterday
    Tuesday, September 19, 2017 - 08:41 EDT

    BOC deputy governor Tim Lane spoke publicly on global trade, yesterday. He reiterated that the central bank is closely monitoring how the economy responds to rising borrowing costs and a stronger Canadian dollar. In the speech, he also mentioned how…

  • Investors' attention is turning to the FOMC announcement this Wednesday
    Monday, September 18, 2017 - 09:24 EDT

    Investors’ attention is turning to the FOMC announcement this Wednesday. While the Feb is broadly expected to maintain the benchmark rate unchanged at the current level of 1%-1.25%, the majority of the attention will be on whether there will be det…

  • U.S. retail sales for the month of August fell
    Friday, September 15, 2017 - 10:22 EDT

    North Korea launched another missile over Japan after the UN Security Council imposed the strongest sanctions on North Korea on Monday. Markets were a touch softer and viewed the current situation as a continuance of the provocation, instead of furth…

  • U.S. headline inflation increased by 0.4%
    Thursday, September 14, 2017 - 09:38 EDT

    U.S headline inflation increased by 0.4% to 1.9% in August, largely due to 2.8% energy prices increase causing by Hurricane Harvey. Core inflation rose by 0.2% to 1.7% in August, supported by strong service prices. Fed officials are closely monitorin…

  • Yesterday was a very active day in the domestic bond market
    Wednesday, September 13, 2017 - 09:36 EDT

    U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is planning to deliver a speech on her latest Brexit negotiation strategy on September 21st . The European Union and U.K. have agreed to postpone the next round of Brexit negotiation to a date after the speech, which i…

  • The UN Security Council approved new sanctions against North Korea
    Tuesday, September 12, 2017 - 09:06 EDT

    The United Nations Security Council approved new sanctions against North Korea after its most powerful missile and nuclear tests. The sanctions targeted to cut oil imports to 2 million barrels a year, ban textile exports and enhance shipments inspect…

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