Daily Market Commentary

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Get a complete view of the world as seen through the eyes of our investment professionals each and every business day shortly after the opening bell.

The information contained herein is intended for advisors for general information only and is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy. All opinions contained in the commentary and expressed by the portfolio manager are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith without legal responsibility. All market data is sourced from Bloomberg.​​​​​

  • WTI crude prices continue to sell off this morning
    Friday, May 26, 2017 - 11:54 EDT

    WTI crude prices continue to sell off this morning, currently sitting at $48.61/barrel after closing at $51.36/barrel on Wednesday.  This follows yesterday’s OPEC announcement to continue oil supply reductions for an additional nine months.&nb…

  • The Bank of Canada, as expected, decided to keep rates unchanged
    Thursday, May 25, 2017 - 08:43 EDT

    The Bank of Canada, as expected, decided to keep rates unchanged yesterday with a generally neutral tone to the statement.  There were comments that the CPI is generally in line with the Bank’s projections, which is temporarily lower due to lo…

  • Moody's downgraded China's sovereign credit rating
    Wednesday, May 24, 2017 - 09:33 EDT

    Last night, Moody’s downgraded China’s sovereign credit rating one notch from Aa3 to A1 noting the increase in leverage and debt burdens will put pressure on state finances.  The rating agency also added that China would be challenged to mai…

  • The Trump administration will release its 2018 budget proposal today
    Tuesday, May 23, 2017 - 08:55 EDT

    The Trump administration will release its 2018 budget proposal today.  Proposed budget details were posted on the Health and Human Services Department website titled “Putting America’s Health First”, which was later removed.  If the a…

  • Market volatility continues to ease this morning
    Friday, May 19, 2017 - 10:21 EDT

    Market volatility continues to ease this morning, with the VIX index at 13.49 after hitting an intraday high yesterday of 16.  President Trump spoke yesterday evening and answered questions around any contact with Russia and imposing his will to…

  • The VIX Index spiked yesterday from 10.65 to 15.59
    Thursday, May 18, 2017 - 08:46 EDT

    The VIX Index spiked yesterday from 10.65 to 15.59, as volatility increased after news surfaced that the Trump administration may have had undisclosed contact with Russia.  There was also speculation that President Trump ordered FBI Director Com…

  • Eurozone CPI for April came in at 0.4%
    Wednesday, May 17, 2017 - 08:49 EDT

    Eurozone CPI for April came in at 0.4%, which was in line with expectations, with year over year inflation tracking 1.9%.  Categories such as recreation/culture boosted inflation from the Easter holiday as well as electricity and gas prices rela…

  • First quarter GDP for the Eurozone came in as expected at 0.5%
    Tuesday, May 16, 2017 - 08:24 EDT

    First quarter GDP for the Eurozone came in as expected at +0.5%, with year over year GDP tracking at +1.7%.  Although the Eurozone as a whole showed growth, it masks a somewhat uneven growth path across the region.  Spain, for instance, sho…

  • WTI crude prices are up over 3% this morning
    Monday, May 15, 2017 - 09:12 EDT

    WTI crude prices are up over 3% this morning after both Saudi Arabia and Russia said that they were both in favour of extending the oil output cuts until the first quarter of 2018.  The ultimate goal is to reduce global inventories to the five y…

  • U.S. retail sales for April increased by 0.4%
    Friday, May 12, 2017 - 09:38 EDT

    U.S. retail sales for April increased by 0.4% against expectations of +0.6%, although last month’s number was revised higher to +0.1% from -0.2%.  Purchases of autos increased by 0.7% while electronics and appliance sales increased 1.3% in the…

  • New York President Dudley spoke this morning
    Thursday, May 11, 2017 - 09:39 EDT

    New York Fed President Dudley spoke this morning stating that the Fed will most likely start to shrink its balance sheet later this year or next.  He noted that the U.S. is pretty close to full employment and inflation is slightly below their ta…

  • Oil prices are higher this morning
    Wednesday, May 10, 2017 - 09:35 EDT

    Oil prices are higher this morning at $46.32/barrel as industry reports show that U.S. supplies dropped for a fifth week, helping to reduce the inventory overhang.  Inventories fell by 5.79 million barrels last week and expectations are for an a…

  • Today is election day in BC
    Tuesday, May 9, 2017 - 09:11 EDT

    Today is election day in BC with many energy and pipeline investors closely watching the developments between the Liberals and NDP party.  Polls show that it will be a close race with 39% and 40% of votes going to each party, respectively. …

  • European equity markets are weaker this morning
    Monday, May 8, 2017 - 08:58 EDT

    Emmanuel Macron won the French presidential election on Sunday, beating far right candidate Le Pen.  Macron won 66% of votes, with his primary platform to strengthen free market policies and improve ties with the European Union.  However, e…

  • WTI crude prices continue to be weaker this morning
    Friday, May 5, 2017 - 09:21 EDT

    Canadian employment grew by 3.2k in April, which was below expectations of +10k.  Although below expectations, Canadian employment is still averaging approximately 21k new jobs per month this year.  Details in the employment numbers were a…

  • The FOMC left the Fed funds traget rate unchanged
    Thursday, May 4, 2017 - 16:37 EDT

    The FOMC left the Fed funds target rate unchanged yesterday at 0.75-1%.  A statement did acknowledge that growth in the first quarter had slowed, but most of those factors are likely to be transitory.  However, the fundamentals underpinning…

  • The FOMC will release its policy announcement later this afternoon
    Wednesday, May 3, 2017 - 12:28 EDT

    The FOMC will release its policy announcement later this afternoon, although expectations are for rates to remain unchanged.  The tone of the statement, as well as changes to reframe guidance for additional rate increases this year, will be impo…

  • Today is the start of the two day FOMC meetings before tomorrow's announcement
    Tuesday, May 2, 2017 - 09:00 EDT

    Today is the start of the two day FOMC meetings before tomorrow’s announcement.  With the most recent softness in data, including last Friday’s Q1 GDP number, it is expected that the Fed will hold rates unchanged this meeting.  Markets…

  • A tentative $1.1 trillion bill is agreed to keep the U.S. government open
    Monday, May 1, 2017 - 10:18 EDT

    Last night, the U.S. house and senate reached a tentative agreement on a $1.1 trillion bill to keep the government open until the end of September.  With a bipartisan agreement, markets are hoping that negotiations will not stall where there wou…

  • Canadian GDP for February came in flat
    Friday, April 28, 2017 - 09:46 EDT

    Canadian GDP for February came in flat, just below expectations of +0.1%, with year over year growth tracking at 2.5%.  The Canadian economy stalled in the month as manufacturing and production in the goods sectors shrank, offset by real estate…

  • President Trump yesterday announced changes to corporate taxes
    Thursday, April 27, 2017 - 09:16 EDT

    President Trump yesterday announced changes to corporate taxes by cutting the current rate of 35% to 15%.  It is yet to be seen whether the new policy change will be revenue neutral, as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expects economic growth from the…

  • Canadian retail sales were weaker than expected
    Wednesday, April 26, 2017 - 10:03 EDT

    Canadian retail sales were weaker than expected, with February data reporting a decrease of 0.6% versus a flat reading expected.  The prior month’s strong reading was increased 0.1% to 2.3%.  Sales related to motor vehicles, and purchases…

  • U.S. President Trump yesterday imposed a 20% tax on softwood lumber
    Tuesday, April 25, 2017 - 08:38 EDT

    U.S. President Trump yesterday imposed a 20% tax on softwood lumber for all softwood coming into the U.S. from Canada.  This is the first political action from President Trump that substantially affects trade between the two countries and potent…

  • Equity markets in Europe are rallying
    Monday, April 24, 2017 - 10:18 EDT

    Equity markets in Europe are rallying after the centrist Emmanuel Macron and nationalist Le Pen garnered the largest number of votes in the first round of the French presidential election.  The France CAC 40 is up 4.5% with other periphery equit…

  • Canadian CPI for March came in lower than expected
    Friday, April 21, 2017 - 09:42 EDT

    Canadian CPI for March came in lower than expected at 1.6% y/y, instead of consensus of 1.8%.  Inflation declined in the month from decreases in food and clothing prices.  This is the third straight month of food price declines as gasoline…

  • Equity markets are mixed this morning
    Thursday, April 20, 2017 - 09:25 EDT

    Equity markets in Europe are mixed this morning, as there is uncertainty for investors surrounding the French election. The Ontario budget will be released today, and many will look towards additional measures aimed at cooling Toronto’s housing ma…

  • All three levels of government met yesterday to discuss Toronto's housing market
    Wednesday, April 19, 2017 - 09:08 EDT

    After all three levels of government met yesterday to discuss Toronto’s housing market, they have agreed in the short-term to refrain from introducing new measures for buyers.  Finance Minister Morneau noted that any additional measures in the…

  • U.K. Prime Minister announced a snap election this morning
    Tuesday, April 18, 2017 - 09:12 EDT

    U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May announced this morning that she would seek a snap U.K. election on June 8 in order to strengthen her ability to negotiate Brexit.  An election in the U.K. is not due until 2020, although polls show that she curren…

  • Ten year U.S. Treasury yields are at a five month low at 2.21%
    Monday, April 17, 2017 - 09:20 EDT

    The U.S. reported both retail sales and CPI on Friday, with indications that Q1 GDP may come in lower than initially expected.  Retail sales declined for two straight months, with March figures falling by 0.2% and last month’s reading revised…

  • BoC's growth projections for 2017 were revised higher
    Thursday, April 13, 2017 - 09:19 EDT

    As expected, the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged yesterday.  Although the statement was much more balanced and acknowledged the most recent improvement in economic data, the Bank believes that “there is still considerable uncertainty about…

  • BOC is expected to keep the overnight rate unchanged
    Wednesday, April 12, 2017 - 11:01 EDT

    The Bank of Canada will release its monetary policy statement this morning at 10am and is expected to keep the overnight rate unchanged at 0.5%.  The last statement held some dovish posturing that noted the Canadian economy still had excess capa…

  • There continues to be a bid for safe haven assets
    Tuesday, April 11, 2017 - 09:11 EDT

    Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke yesterday and stated that the Fed has shifted focus to sustaining growth on an even keel instead of stimulating the economy.  She believed that the economy was “pretty healthy” from the central bank’s long runn…

  • More hawkish comments sent 10 year Treasury rates higher on Friday
    Monday, April 10, 2017 - 09:11 EDT

    Fed vice-chairman Dudley spoke following Friday’s weak U.S. non-farm payroll number.  Dudley suggested that once the Fed starts to shrink its balance sheet, the path towards short-term rate normalization will take less time than investors may…

  • Canadian employment added 19.4k jobs, surpassing expectations
    Friday, April 7, 2017 - 09:05 EDT

      U.S. non-farm payrolls came in much lower than expectations at 98k, against an expected 180k increase.  Two month revisions were also lower by -38k.  The lower than expected number is being blamed on weather related issues where 10-…

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping's two day visit with President Trump starts today
    Thursday, April 6, 2017 - 09:12 EDT

    Chinese President Xi Jinping’s two day visit with President Trump starts today.  During President Trump’s campaign, he blamed China for taking millions of U.S. jobs and enabling North Korea’s move toward obtaining nuclear weapons.  La…

  • U.S. ADP employment for March increased by 263k
    Wednesday, April 5, 2017 - 09:29 EDT

    U.S. ADP employment for March increased by 263k, which was above expectations of a 185k increase.  Last month’s figure was revised lower by 53k to 245k.  Although last month’s large ADP increase matched the surge in non-farm payrolls, h…

  • Canadian trade blaance posted a deficit
    Tuesday, April 4, 2017 - 09:30 EDT

    Canadian trade balance posted a deficit of $927mil against expectations of a $600mil surplus for February.  Last month’s trade balance was also revised lower from $807mil to $421mil.  Export volumes in February fell by 2.5%, generally rel…

  • Oil prices continue to march higher
    Monday, April 3, 2017 - 12:25 EDT

    Oil prices continue to march higher this morning, with prices holding steady above $50/barrel.  Globally, crude stockpiles continue to show signs of decline after OPEC nations agreed to cut production.  Many of the OPEC members support exte…

  • The Canadian economy continued to show growth to start the year...
    Friday, March 31, 2017 - 09:55 EDT

    The Canadian economy continued to show growth to start the year, with January posting an increase in GDP of 0.6% against consensus of +0.3%.  Canadian manufacturing and oil producers boosted growth, as the manufacturing sector grew at the fastes…

  • The third and final reading of U.S. Q4 GDP improved to 2.1%...
    Thursday, March 30, 2017 - 10:19 EDT

    The third and final reading of U.S. Q4 GDP improved by 0.2% to 2.1%, as household spending was revised higher.  The upward revision was offset slightly by larger negative contributions to net trade.  In Europe, German inflation for March ca…

  • Today marks the official day that the U.K. has submitted its letter to the European Union...
    Wednesday, March 29, 2017 - 09:05 EDT

    Today marks the official day that the U.K. has submitted its letter to the European Union to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.  Brexit is expected to take two years, as Britain will begin negotiations with its largest trading partner.&nbs…

  • President Trump failed to garner sufficient support to pass healthcare reform...
    Monday, March 27, 2017 - 09:58 EDT

    President Trump failed to garner sufficient support to pass healthcare reform legislation in Congress last Friday.  As a result, S&P500 futures are pointing towards a lower open, while 10-year Treasury yields are 0.05% lower at 2.36%. …

  • Canadian inflation in February increased 0.2% m/m
    Friday, March 24, 2017 - 09:29 EDT

    The U.S. government continues to debate reforms to the healthcare bill, as the vote was delayed yesterday.  However, President Trump and House Speaker Ryan are set on forcing through a vote today.  At this point, it is uncertain whether Rep…

  • Canadian deficit expected to increase to $28 billion
    Thursday, March 23, 2017 - 09:13 EDT

    The Canadian Federal Budget was announced yesterday that will see the 2017/18 deficit increase to $28 billion, an increase from a $23 billion deficit last year.  The Liberal government rationalized that the increase in the deficit would not affe…

  • The Canadian federal budget will be released this afternoon
    Wednesday, March 22, 2017 - 08:52 EDT

    The Canadian federal budget will be released this afternoon, with the press reporting yesterday that a potential capital gains tax will not be included in this budget release.  Investors will wait and see if that is the case as well as further c…

  • Canadian retail sales surged in January
    Tuesday, March 21, 2017 - 09:01 EDT

    Canadian retail sales surged in January at an increase of 2.2% against expectations of +1.5%, rising the most since March 2010.  New car dealer sales were the largest contributor to the monthly gain.  However, there were broad based gains a…

  • Oil prices are weaker this morning
    Monday, March 20, 2017 - 08:58 EDT

    Oil prices are weaker this morning, down 1.5%, as data released on Friday showed that the U.S. rig count increased by 14.  As a result, equity markets in Europe are down approximately 0.25% to start the morning.  Canada’s federal budget…

  • Canadian manufacturing sales rose 0.6% in January
    Friday, March 17, 2017 - 09:03 EDT

    Canadian manufacturing sales rose 0.6% in January beating expectations of a 0.3% decrease.  Manufacturing sales volumes also rose 0.7% while new orders climbed 4.6% for the month.  The largest contribution in January was a 0.71% increase in…

  • As expected, the Fed raised rates by 25bps yesterday
    Thursday, March 16, 2017 - 09:05 EDT

    As expected, the Fed raised rates by 25bps yesterday, although the statement and press conference held a dovish tilt around inflation expectations.  The statement noted that business investment and inflation was stronger, although core inflation…

  • We expect to see the Fed raise rates by 25bps
    Wednesday, March 15, 2017 - 09:09 EDT

    The FOMC statement at 2pm is expected to see the Fed raise rates by 25bps, which will be followed by Janet Yellen’s press conference.  With stronger economic data recently including better employment, retail sales and higher inflation, investo…

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