Daily Market Commentary

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Get a complete view of the world as seen through the eyes of our investment professionals each and every business day shortly after the opening bell.

The information contained herein is intended for advisors for general information only and is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy. All opinions contained in the commentary and expressed by the portfolio manager are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith without legal responsibility. All market data is sourced from Bloomberg.​​​​​

  • Investors will be watching for the FOMC policy announcement...
    Monday, July 24, 2017 - 09:28 EDT

    Investors will be watching for the FOMC policy announcement this coming Wednesday.  Although the probability that the Fed will hike rates this meeting is next to nil, what is important will be any additional details on the steps towards balance…

  • Canadian headline inflation continues to run softer in Canada...
    Friday, July 21, 2017 - 10:15 EDT

    Canadian headline inflation continues to run softer in Canada, posting an increase of 1% year-over-year for June, just below expectations of +1.1%.  Inflation tracked lower from the previous reading of 1.3%, with June’s number the slowest sinc…

  • The European Central Bank left rates unchanged this morning...
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 - 11:04 EDT

    The European Central Bank left rates unchanged this morning, and continues to maintain its quantitative easing program at 60 billion euros every month.  The statement maintained some dovish commentary, indicating that quantitative easing can be…

  • Morgan Stanley is the last of the big five banks in the U.S. to report...
    Wednesday, July 19, 2017 - 09:31 EDT

    The Bank of Japan begins its monetary policy meeting and outlook report today and tomorrow.  Inflation in Japan still remains low, rising 0.4% year-over-year for the last reported data in May.  Previously, Governor Kuroda indicated that it…

  • The Canadian dollar continues to rally...
    Tuesday, July 18, 2017 - 09:35 EDT

    The Canadian dollar continues to rally against the U.S. dollar following last week’s increase in the overnight rate by the Bank of Canada, along with reports this morning that two more Republican senators announced that they will vote against Presi…

  • China GDP was released overnight, coming in at 6.9%...
    Monday, July 17, 2017 - 10:15 EDT

    China GDP was released overnight, coming in at 6.9% for the second quarter, above expectations of 6.8%.  Growth was driven by industrial production, business investment, and retail sales.  The Chinese consumer continued to spend, as sales r…

  • U.S. inflation came in slightly below expectations
    Friday, July 14, 2017 - 09:29 EDT

    U.S. inflation came in slightly below expectations at 1.6% y/y versus consensus of 1.7%, while core inflation continues to track below the Fed’s target at 1.7%.  Drops in airfares, vehicles sales and wireless phone services contributed to the…

  • The BoC increased the Overnight Rate by 25 basis points
    Thursday, July 13, 2017 - 08:58 EDT

    The Bank of Canada increased the Overnight Rate by 25 basis points yesterday to 0.75%.  The Bank acknowledged the recent softness in inflation but judges this to be temporary.  The statement also noted that the Canadian economy has been rob…

  • The BoC will release its policy statement this morning
    Wednesday, July 12, 2017 - 09:14 EDT

    The Bank of Canada will release its policy statement this morning, with a 90% probability of a 25bps rate hike.  With the market already pricing in that the Bank will raise rates this meeting, the tone of today’s statement will be important.&n…

  • Oil prices continue to be pressured
    Tuesday, July 11, 2017 - 09:18 EDT

    Oil prices continue to be pressured and have been unable to sustain levels above $45/barrel.  Saudi Arabia has told OPEC that oil drilling has exceeded its production limit for the first time since the agreement to cut global oil supply.  I…

  • All eyes will be on the Bank of Canada this coming Wednesday
    Monday, July 10, 2017 - 08:46 EDT

    All eyes will be on the Bank of Canada this coming Wednesday as the monetary policy release is expected to announce a 25bps rate increase in the Overnight Rate.  OIS implied probabilities currently have a 93% chance that the Bank will raise rate…

  • Canadian employment numbers continue to soar
    Friday, July 7, 2017 - 09:09 EDT

    Canadian employment numbers continue to soar adding 45.3k jobs in June, higher than expectations of +10k.  The Majority of the jobs added were part-time at +37k, while full-time employment increased +8k.  On average, the Canadian economy ha…

  • Rates in Canada continue to move higher this morning
    Thursday, July 6, 2017 - 08:42 EDT

    The FOMC minutes released yesterday gave evidence that there is no strong conviction towards when the normalization of the balance sheet will occur.  Several Fed members expect the start of the reduction of the balance sheet to begin in a “cou…

  • The FOMC will release its minutes from the June meeting
    Wednesday, July 5, 2017 - 09:00 EDT

    Today, the FOMC will release its minutes from the June meeting, where the central bank raised the Fed Funds Rate by 25bps and provided details on how they plan to normalize the balance sheet.  Precise timing for the potential reduction of the ba…

  • Governor Poloz continues to gives indications of a potential rate hike
    Tuesday, July 4, 2017 - 10:41 EDT

    Governor Poloz continues to give indications of a potential rate hike by the Bank of Canada on July 12.  He reiterated Deputy Governor Wilkins’ comparison of a car driving to a red light and easing up on the accelerator instead of waiting for…

  • The Canadian dollar continues to rally
    Friday, June 30, 2017 - 09:06 EDT

    The Canadian dollar continues to rally following increased expectations that the Bank of Canada will raise rates this upcoming July meeting.  The CAD/USD exchange sits just above $0.77, after falling below $0.73 back in May.  Also pushing t…

  • Central bank commentary continues to drive yields higher
    Thursday, June 29, 2017 - 09:07 EDT

    Central bank commentary continues to drive yields higher this morning, following hawkish comments from the Bank of Canada, Bank of England and the ECB.  BOC Deputy Governor Patterson delivered a speech in Calgary and echoed a similar tone from o…

  • Rates in Canada continue to move higher this morning
    Wednesday, June 28, 2017 - 09:47 EDT

    Rates in Canada continue to move higher this morning following BOC Governor Poloz’s comments.  He again reiterated that the 2015 rate cuts have done their job, and the Bank is now reaching a pivotal juncture towards a new interest rate decisio…

  • President Draghi called for continued Euro-area stimulus
    Tuesday, June 27, 2017 - 09:20 EDT

    During the ECB’s Forum on Central Banking, President Draghi called for continued Euro-area stimulus, noting that support is still necessary even though economic growth has improved.  Although reflationary forces are now pointing to a strengthe…

  • The U.K. conservative party has struck a deal
    Monday, June 26, 2017 - 09:04 EDT

    The U.K. conservative party has struck a deal with the Northern Ireland’s DUP, who will support Prime Minister May’s minority government.  Discussions between the two parties have focused on providing monetary support for Northern Ireland an…

  • Canadian CPI continues to be weak, posting an increase of 1.3% in May...
    Friday, June 23, 2017 - 10:07 EDT

    Canadian CPI continues to be weak, posting an increase of 1.3% in May, against expectations of +1.5%.  Gasoline prices fell by 4% in May, although year over year gas prices are still up by 6.8%.  Food inflation was mildly higher at +0.6% fo…

  • Prime Minister May will meet with other European Union leaders today...
    Thursday, June 22, 2017 - 11:00 EDT

    Prime Minister May will meet with other European Union leaders today in Brussels, where she will walk through the principles in her approach towards Brexit.  The details of the plan will be published next Monday and allow the British parliament…

  • Dallas Fed President Kaplan spoke yesterday
    Wednesday, June 21, 2017 - 09:18 EDT

    Dallas Fed President Kaplan spoke yesterday and noted that the muted 10yr Treasury yield suggests expectations of sluggish economic growth.  He was glad that the Fed increased rates last meeting but is willing to be patient moving forward. …

  • Today marks the second day of Brexit
    Tuesday, June 20, 2017 - 08:46 EDT

    Today marks the second day of Brexit with an agreement from both the U.K. and the EU that the agenda would first begin with the exit bill followed by the rights of EU and British citizens living outside their home region.  The Bank of England Go…

  • Brexit negotiations officially begin this morning
    Monday, June 19, 2017 - 08:31 EDT

    Brexit negotiations officially begin this morning in Brussels, a year after the vote for the U.K. to leave the Eurozone.  Although very preliminary, Theresa May will lay out the legislative process with the U.K. parliament in two days’ time, f…

  • Overseas buyers purchased $10.6bil of Canadian securities
    Friday, June 16, 2017 - 09:42 EDT

    Overseas buyers purchased $10.6bil of Canadian securities in April, down from the prior month purchases of $15.1bil.  The breakdown included buying of just under $13bil of bonds, offset by selling of $1.3bil of equities and $1.1bil of money mark…

  • As expected, the Fed raised rates by 25bps yesterday
    Thursday, June 15, 2017 - 08:39 EDT

    As expected, the Fed raised the Fed Funds rate by 25bps yesterday, with the target range at 1%-1.25%.  The statement did address that core inflation continues to run below their 2% target, but Yellen dismissed the recent softness in inflation as…

  • 94.8% probability that the Fed will raise rates today
    Wednesday, June 14, 2017 - 09:12 EDT

    Bank of Canada Governor Poloz spoke yesterday but did not reiterate deputy governor Wilkins’ comments from the prior day.  However, he did not provide any reason for investors to think differently either.  He indicated there are still two…

  • The Bank of Canada senior deputy Wilkins spoke yesterday
    Tuesday, June 13, 2017 - 08:55 EDT

    The Bank of Canada senior deputy Wilkins spoke yesterday and brought a much more hawkish tone to the bank.  In her speech, she noted that as growth continues to broaden further, the Bank will begin assessing whether the current monetary stimulus…

  • All eyes will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve this week
    Monday, June 12, 2017 - 08:35 EDT

    All eyes will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve this week, as the FOMC will release its policy statement on Wednesday.  The probability of the Fed raising rates this meeting currently stands just below 95%, as several Fed officials over the past mo…

  • Canadian employment surged in May
    Friday, June 9, 2017 - 09:43 EDT

    U.K. Prime Minister May was unable to garner enough seats in yesterday’s election to secure a majority government.  Her Conservative party still holds the largest number of seats at 318, just short of 326 seats required for a house majority.&n…

  • Voters in Britain head to the Polls today
    Thursday, June 8, 2017 - 08:58 EDT

    Voters in Britain head to the polls today, after Prime Minister May called a snap election to consolidate power and form a majority government.  The latest poll by Ipsos indicated that the Conservatives would win 44% of the votes, just short of…

  • New supply continues to come to the Canadian corporate credit market
    Wednesday, June 7, 2017 - 09:07 EDT

    Canada and the U.S. are quiet this morning with very little in the way of economic data.  However, China reported May monthly foreign exchange reserves, increasing $24 billion to approximately $3.05 trillion.  Recent new methodology to stab…

  • The tone this morning remains cautious
    Tuesday, June 6, 2017 - 08:48 EDT

    The tone this morning remains cautious ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting and some uncertainty around whether U.K. Prime Minister May will garner enough support for a majority government.  Following yesterday’s announcement that Saud…

  • A quiet start to the week in-regards to economic data releases
    Monday, June 5, 2017 - 09:08 EDT

    A quiet start to the week in-regards to economic data releases, with oil continuing to show weakness despite several Arab countries cutting diplomatic and economic ties with Qatar for their alleged support of terrorist groups in the region.  Thi…

  • U.S. non-farm came in at +138k, lower than expectations
    Friday, June 2, 2017 - 09:27 EDT

    U.S. non-farm payrolls came in at +138k, lower than expectations of +183k.  Two month revisions were also down 66k, with private payrolls coming in under expectations.  Mildly positive was the pace of wage growth, as average hourly earnings…

  • Oil prices continue to be under pressure
    Thursday, June 1, 2017 - 11:03 EDT

    Oil prices continue to be under pressure following the underwhelming OPEC deal to cut supply for an additional nine months.  Libya’s largest oil field also increased production to the highest levels since 2014, further pushing oil prices even…

  • Canadian Q1 GDP came in at 3.7%, below expectations of 4.2%
    Wednesday, May 31, 2017 - 08:58 EDT

    Canadian Q1 GDP came in at 3.7%, below expectations of 4.2%.  Last quarter’s GDP number was revised higher by 0.1% to +2.7%.  Household consumption rose at the fastest pace since 2010, increasing by 4.3% annualized, as improving job marke…

  • ECB President Draghi indicated that the euro-area recovery is well on its way
    Tuesday, May 30, 2017 - 09:10 EDT

    ECB President Draghi spoke yesterday and indicated that the euro-area recovery is well on its way.  However, he believes that key risks to the recovery are now weighted towards external factors, especially the “neo-protectionist stances that h…

  • San Francisco Fed President spoke in Singapore
    Monday, May 29, 2017 - 08:51 EDT

    San Francisco Fed President Williams spoke in Singapore and commented on the future of the Fed’s balance sheet.  He believes that the unwinding process will start with baby steps later this year with the size of the overall balance sheet to be…

  • WTI crude prices continue to sell off this morning
    Friday, May 26, 2017 - 11:54 EDT

    WTI crude prices continue to sell off this morning, currently sitting at $48.61/barrel after closing at $51.36/barrel on Wednesday.  This follows yesterday’s OPEC announcement to continue oil supply reductions for an additional nine months.&nb…

  • The Bank of Canada, as expected, decided to keep rates unchanged
    Thursday, May 25, 2017 - 08:43 EDT

    The Bank of Canada, as expected, decided to keep rates unchanged yesterday with a generally neutral tone to the statement.  There were comments that the CPI is generally in line with the Bank’s projections, which is temporarily lower due to lo…

  • Moody's downgraded China's sovereign credit rating
    Wednesday, May 24, 2017 - 09:33 EDT

    Last night, Moody’s downgraded China’s sovereign credit rating one notch from Aa3 to A1 noting the increase in leverage and debt burdens will put pressure on state finances.  The rating agency also added that China would be challenged to mai…

  • The Trump administration will release its 2018 budget proposal today
    Tuesday, May 23, 2017 - 08:55 EDT

    The Trump administration will release its 2018 budget proposal today.  Proposed budget details were posted on the Health and Human Services Department website titled “Putting America’s Health First”, which was later removed.  If the a…

  • Market volatility continues to ease this morning
    Friday, May 19, 2017 - 10:21 EDT

    Market volatility continues to ease this morning, with the VIX index at 13.49 after hitting an intraday high yesterday of 16.  President Trump spoke yesterday evening and answered questions around any contact with Russia and imposing his will to…

  • The VIX Index spiked yesterday from 10.65 to 15.59
    Thursday, May 18, 2017 - 08:46 EDT

    The VIX Index spiked yesterday from 10.65 to 15.59, as volatility increased after news surfaced that the Trump administration may have had undisclosed contact with Russia.  There was also speculation that President Trump ordered FBI Director Com…

  • Eurozone CPI for April came in at 0.4%
    Wednesday, May 17, 2017 - 08:49 EDT

    Eurozone CPI for April came in at 0.4%, which was in line with expectations, with year over year inflation tracking 1.9%.  Categories such as recreation/culture boosted inflation from the Easter holiday as well as electricity and gas prices rela…

  • First quarter GDP for the Eurozone came in as expected at 0.5%
    Tuesday, May 16, 2017 - 08:24 EDT

    First quarter GDP for the Eurozone came in as expected at +0.5%, with year over year GDP tracking at +1.7%.  Although the Eurozone as a whole showed growth, it masks a somewhat uneven growth path across the region.  Spain, for instance, sho…

  • WTI crude prices are up over 3% this morning
    Monday, May 15, 2017 - 09:12 EDT

    WTI crude prices are up over 3% this morning after both Saudi Arabia and Russia said that they were both in favour of extending the oil output cuts until the first quarter of 2018.  The ultimate goal is to reduce global inventories to the five y…

  • U.S. retail sales for April increased by 0.4%
    Friday, May 12, 2017 - 09:38 EDT

    U.S. retail sales for April increased by 0.4% against expectations of +0.6%, although last month’s number was revised higher to +0.1% from -0.2%.  Purchases of autos increased by 0.7% while electronics and appliance sales increased 1.3% in the…

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